Breaking down the 15-4A tiebreaker

Josh Winfield (11) and the Terrell Tigers may have beaten Forney, but there is still a way the Tigers could be left home while Forney advances to the postseason.

Okay, we’re just 24 hours from the last game of the 2009 regular season and here’s what we know: Red Oak and West Mesquite are going to the playoffs.

After that, it’s one big muddled mess.

Forney and Terrell can clear it up a little bit tomorrow because with wins over Red Oak and Lancaster, respectively, each team will clinch one of the remaining two playoff berths in District 15-4A. Even if Forney loses to Red Oak, the Jackrabbits would still clinch with a Terrell win, due to its head-to-head win over Lancaster.

So that’s the easy part.

But what if both Forney and Terrell lose Friday? Well, that’s where it becomes messy.

Losses by Terrell and Forney would create a 3-way tie with Lancaster joining the mix, then the tiebreaker comes to point differential. Let me explain.
Each team gains a plus or minus in points depending on each game score between any of the three teams.

Currently the +/- point standings look like this:

Terrell is a +6 thanks to its 21-15 win over Forney.
Forney is a +2 with its 16-8 win over Lancaster, then subtracting the 6-point loss to Terrell.
Lancaster is currently a -8 due to the loss to Forney.

In the event of a three-way tie, the team with the highest +/- gets a playoff berth, leaving the remaining spot to the head-to-head winner between the remaining two schools.

If it is to end in a 3-way tie tomorrow night, the final score of the Terrell-Lancaster game would be the deciding factor. Here’s what would happen:

•• If Lancaster wins by 1-4 points – Terrell would clinch with the highest plus-minus and Forney would clinch based on its head-to-head victory over Lancaster, which would be eliminated.

•• If Lancaster beats Terrell by 5-10 points – Forney would clinch with the highest plus-minus and Lancaster would clinch based on its head-to-head win over Terrell. In this scenario, Terrell would be eliminated.

•• If Lancaster wins by 11 points or more – Lancaster would clinch with the highest plus-minus and Terrell would clinch based on its head-to-head win over Forney, which means the Jackrabbits would be eliminated.

That’s how the system works.

Now, as far as seeding is concerned, that’s a different monster altogether, with enrollment figures coming into play to determine seeds, but here is what it boils down to.

ENROLLMENT
Lancaster – 1,824
Forney – 1,726
Red Oak – 1,702
West Mesquite – 1,648
Terrell – 1,204

If Terrell and Forney clinch:
Division I – #1 Red Oak, #2 Forney
Division II – #1 West Mesquite, #2 Terrell

If Terrell and Lancaster clinch:
Division I – #1 Red Oak, #2 Lancaster
Division II – #1 West Mesquite, #2 Terrell

If Forney and Lancaster clinch:
Division I - #1 Forney, #2 Lancaster
Division II – #1 Red Oak, #2 West Mesquite

Obviously, for the Terrell Tigers, the bottom line is simple – JUST WIN BABY!
If they do that, then they won’t have to worry about any stinking tiebreakers.